Three weeks separated Trump’s signature on a new Russia sanctions law from his decision to reopen the American market to Russian diesel. On September 18, Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, after the House approved the final version 262 to 159. On October 9, the Treasury Department issued General License 135, authorizing the sale, delivery, and importation of Russian diesel through April 7, 2027.
Trump used authority Congress preserved in the statute. The law protects Treasury’s power to issue new general licenses and lets the president waive sanctions after declaring a national interest. The administration that celebrated expanded pressure on Russia reopened a Russian fuel trade just as high prices became a political liability before the midterms.
The price shock began in Iran
The emergency is real. The BBC reported that diesel hit a record $6.53 a gallon at the end of September. It has since slipped to about $6.28, still nearly 70 percent above its level when the Iran war began in February. Regular gasoline is around $4.20. Brent crude is above $103 a barrel, compared with roughly $73 before the war.
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after the United States went to war. Before the closure, the strait carried about 20 percent of global oil supplies. Diesel powers the trucks, trains, farm equipment, and construction machinery that move the economy, as the Energy Information Administration explains. The pain spreads from the pump to the price of nearly everything those machines carry or build.
Paul Johnson, the former director of Britain’s Institute for Fiscal Studies, put the cause plainly: “President Trump has created this problem himself.” Trump is offering Russian diesel as the remedy for a price shock driven by his war and the closure of Hormuz.
The first shipment cannot move the price
Trump said Putin would release 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and another million tonnes later. He also claimed three million more tonnes could follow, depending on the condition of Russian refineries. The BBC reported the full sequence, along with a problem the announcement cannot hide: the first shipment is tiny beside American demand.
Tim Armitage of Quilter Cheviot calculated that 300,000 tonnes equals about 2.25 million barrels, while the United States consumes about 3.8 million barrels of diesel a day. EIA data offer a second check: the transportation sector alone used 2.94 million barrels a day in 2025, which was about three quarters of total American distillate consumption. The first shipment amounts to less than one day’s supply.
Ashley Kelty of Panmure Liberum estimated that chartering, loading, and shipping the fuel would take three weeks, placing its arrival about a week before the midterms. That leaves no credible path for the cargo to push pump prices down before people vote. Armitage told the BBC it “won’t make a material difference” to American prices.
The later shipments are uncertain too. Russia’s diesel production has fallen nearly 30 percent, according to International Energy Agency estimates, after Ukrainian attacks on refineries caused shortages and an export ban inside Russia. Political risk analyst Maximilian Hess argues that Putin benefits even if the deal fails, because he can blame Ukraine for disrupting delivery and turn Trump against Zelenskyy. The fight between Washington and Kyiv has already begun.
Russia gets a market while Ukraine gets demands
The sanctions relief gives Russia a legal route to sell fuel. The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said the suspension would provide Moscow with more revenue to wage war. Europe planned to add 1,600 people and entities to its Russia sanctions list while Washington opened a channel for Russian diesel.
Russia supplied the human context hours later. Five glide bombs hit residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia on Saturday. The BBC reported at least 20 people killed, including four children, with dozens more injured. Zelenskyy told Axios that Trump’s diesel arrangement looked like “a happy birthday present for Putin”. He separately called the sanctions relief an investment in a war that must end.
Trump followed the diesel announcement with a social media declaration that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate “energy ceasefire.” Zelenskyy said the supposed agreement was “news to me”, though Ukraine would accept a reciprocal halt.
Russia did not halt. Zelenskyy said Russian drones flew throughout Sunday and strikes hit Kharkiv’s thermal power station No. 5 after more than 200 attacks on Ukrainian electricity infrastructure that week. At the same time, the Financial Times reported that the United States was threatening Ukraine’s weapons procurement system to force Kyiv to stop striking Russian energy infrastructure. Trump also said Ukraine needed “a new leader”.
The terms are brutally lopsided. Kyiv faces pressure to stop hitting the refineries that finance Russia’s invasion. Russia kept bombing Ukrainian power infrastructure and received an American license to sell fuel.
Cheap fuel deserves an honest policy
Diesel above $6 a gallon punishes working people. Farmers, truckers, and commuters cannot absorb an endless war premium, and a president should look for more supply during a shortage. Congress deliberately preserved licensing and waiver authority. A reciprocal ceasefire that stopped attacks on energy infrastructure would also save lives.
The diesel deal does not meet those tests. Its first cargo is smaller than one day of American demand and may arrive only days before the election. The price shock came from the war with Iran and the closure of Hormuz, neither of which Russian diesel resolves. The ceasefire had no visible Russian commitment when Trump announced it, and Russian attacks continued.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the deal good for Americans because it would bring prices down. The numbers say otherwise. A shipment too small and too late to move the market provides no justification for opening a revenue channel for Putin while leaning on Ukraine to disarm its most effective economic weapon.
Congress preserved the power to reverse course
The law makes this retreat possible. Section 114 explicitly protects Treasury’s power to issue new general licenses. Section 115 lets the president waive sanctions in the national interest after reporting to Congress. Lawmakers passed both provisions in the same package that imposed sanctions on Russian energy sales and the companies, banks, and vessels supporting them.
Senate Democrats Chuck Schumer, Jeanne Shaheen, and Elizabeth Warren called the diesel deal “what failure looks like”. Nebraska Republican Don Bacon said propping up Putin’s war economy was “morally wrong” because Russia uses that money to bomb cities. Their criticism is correct. It also exposes how little the law’s tough language was worth once Congress preserved such broad executive discretion.
The first Russian cargo is too small to change the price of diesel. General License 135 is broad enough to change who can profit from it. Trump answered a fuel crisis driven by his Iran war by reopening American commerce with Putin and pressuring the country Putin invaded. Calling that relief insults everyone paying the price at the pump and everyone living under Russia’s bombs.